10-16

China's influence in the oil market will increase.

The latest annual "Report on the Development of the Domestic and International Oil and Gas Industry", compiled and published by the China National Petroleum Corporation Economic and Technological Research Institute, was recently released. The report points out that the global oil and gas industry has entered a new adjustment period, the loose supply and demand situation in the world oil market is difficult to change, and international oil prices have stabilized at a low level. It is expected that the trend of international oil prices in 2015 will be low in the first half and high in the second half, with the overall level significantly lower than in 2014. The annual average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil will be between US\$55 and US\$65 per barrel, and the annual average price of Brent crude oil will be between US\$60 and US\$70 per barrel. Experts have analyzed that 2014 was a year of great shocks, adjustments, and turning points for the oil and gas industry. The global oil and gas market structure is being reshaped, the unconventional oil and gas revolution has led to a reversal of the supply and demand pattern, international oil prices have fallen sharply, and the world oil and gas industry has reached a turning point in a new cycle. At the same time, China's oil consumption growth rate has shifted gears, natural gas development has not met expectations, industry reforms and market-oriented processes have accelerated, and the Chinese oil and gas market is facing a major turning point. The report predicts that the world's oil supply, demand, and trade patterns will undergo new changes in 2015. From the supply pattern, the sharp drop in international oil prices has led oil companies to cut investment, and the inhibitory effect on oil production will gradually become apparent. The first to be affected will be new investments in high-cost unconventional production capacity such as shale oil, oil sands, and heavy oil. Low-cost production capacity in the Middle East will gain more market share, and the potential for production growth will be large. From the demand side, the accelerated recovery of the world economy and the maintenance of low international oil prices will stimulate oil demand. From the trade pattern, the Asia-Pacific region will continue to lead the world's oil demand growth. As the competition for market share among oil-producing countries intensifies, China, as the main source of world oil demand growth, will become a target of competition, and the strategic buyer status of Asian countries will be enhanced, and China's influence and voice in the international oil market will increase.

10-16

Oil prices have bottomed out and the oil market is about to self-repair

According to a CNN report on February 4, OPEC Secretary General Abdulla al-Badri recently stated that the current international oil price has bottomed out, and that a decline in crude oil production could cause prices to surge to $200 per barrel in the future. In recent remarks in London, the OPEC Secretary General stated that the current international oil price has fallen to its lowest point, between $45 and $55 per barrel, and indicated that future oil prices will rebound and potentially rise rapidly to $200 per barrel, though he did not provide a specific timeframe. The belief that oil prices have bottomed out is not unique to the OPEC Secretary General; such statements are usually unconvincing, but coming from the OPEC Secretary General, they carry significant weight. Al-Badri's remarks do not imply that OPEC will change its previous strategy of maintaining stable oil production to intervene and boost the oil market. Instead, it suggests that oil companies will independently significantly reduce production, allowing the market to self-correct and ultimately leading to higher oil prices. Additionally, the decreasing number of oil wells in the United States typically signals the appearance of a bottom in oil prices. However, al-Badri warned that reduced investment could lead to a future supply shortage of oil. Global oil fields naturally decline in production by 5% annually. Over the next 15 years, global oil companies need to produce 200 billion barrels of oil to meet demand, requiring investments of $7 trillion to $10 trillion. Due to the continuous decline in crude oil prices since last year, oil companies have delayed investments totaling $150 billion, and it will still take several years for these investments to translate into actual productivity. Therefore, oil prices may rise rapidly in the future. He also pointed out that for OPEC countries, maintaining stable oil production, while causing short-term economic disadvantages due to low oil prices, will allow them to capture a larger market share when oil prices rebound in the future.

10-16

Why the delay in production cuts? One figure tells you why

Since June last year, international crude oil prices have fallen sharply from their highs, with Brent crude, the benchmark for international crude oil, constantly updating the market's prediction of the bottom of oil prices. Has the golden age of oil passed? Some believe that low oil prices will prolong the "life" of the entire oil industry. It is worth mentioning that compared with the three previous major oil price declines in history, the biggest difference in this round of oil price declines is the development of alternative energy. Chen Weidong said: "The oil price declines in 1986, 1998, and 2009 did not see the emergence of alternative energy, but 2014 did. This time, it is mainly due to the development of energy storage technology, and the future development of this technology will have a profound impact on fossil fuels such as oil." In recent years, driven by technological advances, US shale oil production has been steadily climbing, leading to oversupply. As the largest oil producer and consumer, the US will see further development of shale oil technology as oil prices fall. Chen Weidong believes that: "The US's move to increase shale oil production to lower oil prices is actually to extend the life of oil." Since oil is priced and settled in US dollars in the international market, oil prices and the US dollar are usually negatively correlated. In this round of oil price declines, the strengthening of the US dollar is also a factor that cannot be ignored. Relevant data show that in 2014, due to the continued recovery of the US economy and the slowdown or even stagnation of the European and Japanese economies, the US dollar appreciated significantly against multiple currencies, and the oil price denominated in US dollars fell accordingly. Not only that, but the prices of bulk commodities, including coal, also fell.

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